[Cdt-l] Warmer then average winter coming

Ned Tibbits ned at mountaineducation.org
Sat Oct 20 11:41:28 CDT 2012


You know, it may and it may not. We can not predict the actions of God, as hard as we try. 

For those who live in the mountains, it is best if they pay attention to what is happening around them and tell the rest of us. Notice when the aspens turn color; watch the food-collecting habits of the squirrels and note how much they gather and how early; feel the depth of the first cold snap; see if the hibernating animals go in early; for those animals that grow a winter coat, how thick is it?; and so forth.

Observers in the north may notice different signs than those in the south. Compare to the venerated National Weather Service...


Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
www.mountaineducation.org

From: Brett 
Sent: Friday, October 19, 2012 10:29 AM
To: cdt-l at backcountry.net 
Subject: Re: [Cdt-l] Warmer then average winter coming

      I wouldn't start worrying about what next spring and summer will look like at this point. El Nino is most often associated with a shift in precipitation patterns along the west coast (wetter in the Southwest - actually good for a nobo - and drier in the Northwest), rather than specific temperature patterns, but in any case almost all the models favor a weak or very weak El Nino pattern this winter. Doesn't mean nothin' at this point.

      Brett
       

      --- On Fri, 10/19/12, cdt-l-request at backcountry.net <cdt-l-request at backcountry.net> wrote:


        From: cdt-l-request at backcountry.net <cdt-l-request at backcountry.net>
        Subject: Cdt-l Digest, Vol 61, Issue 11
        To: cdt-l at backcountry.net
        Date: Friday, October 19, 2012, 1:00 PM


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        Today's Topics:

           1. Warmer then average winter coming (Peter Sustr)


        ----------------------------------------------------------------------

        Message: 1
        Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 08:23:33 -0600
        From: Peter Sustr <wlmailhtml:/mc/compose?to=petersustr at gmail.com>
        Subject: [Cdt-l] Warmer then average winter coming
        To: wlmailhtml:/mc/compose?to=cdt-l at backcountry.net
        Message-ID:
            <CABwMwJPqfW7zMWGskEemFWcCJ40H+wlmailhtml:/mc/compose?to=ztQQVpFHTyZvd1qDMBZtw at mail.gmail.com>
        Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252"

        Thinking ahead to my 2013 NOBO hike.... water challenges


        *Elusive El Ni?o challenges NOAA?s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook*

        October 18, 2012


        The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska
        could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might
        be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA?s annual
        Winter Outlook announced today from the agency?s new Center for Weather and
        Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.

        Forecasters with NOAA?s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Ni?o,
        expected to have developed by now, makes this year?s winter outlook less
        certain than previous years.

        *Continued at: **
        http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121018_winteroutlook.html*<http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121018_winteroutlook.html>
        * *

        Peter  'CzechXpress'
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