[pct-l] The Herd is a FACT...

[Gary Wright]

On Mar 14, 2007, at 1:21 AM, Slyatpct at aol.com wrote:
> Carl's posted dates of hikers leaving the KO and getting back on  
> the trail,
> pretty much dispelled the myth of the KO causing clump.  It's the   
> numbers...

I'm not sure I would draw that conclusion.

Location   Count    Effective-Start
Border     15-19    Sunday
Morena     40-45    Saturday
Mt. Laguna 15-20    Friday
Scissors   10-15    Thursday
Warner     10-15    Tuesday

By 'Effective-Start'  I mean the starting day that would have
gotten you to that location by Sunday morning had you not stopped at
the kickoff.

So you've got 90-114 hikers starting within a five day period around the
kickoff. You could argue that most hikers would start on a weekend and
that the kickoff happens to occur at the 'sweet-spot' and so the same
number of hikers would start in that period regardless of the kickoff.

But... that seems like a very best case scenario if you were trying
to demonstrate that the kickoff didn't affect start dates.

Those numbers represent 38% of the hikers (if you assume 300
hikers) and it seems like a stretch to say that 38% of the hikers
on any given year would pick the same 5-6 day starting window.
Even within those 5-6 days, the hikers are clumped up.

I think that the best you could say is that those numbers are
inconclusive.  But they seem to suggest some clumping to me
I'm just not sure how to define 'some' other than 'more than none'.

Gary Wright (Radar)