[pct-l] The Herd is a FACT...

[Gary Wright]

On Mar 15, 2007, at 10:18 AM, Slyatpct at aol.com wrote:

> gwtmp01 at mac.com writes:
> The smaller the deviation, the higher the peak.  Personally I find it
> hard to believe that an event that has 'Kickoff' in its title could
> *not* compress the distribution.
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Yeah but I noticed it didn't stop you from starting that weekend.

When I hiked in 2004 I started on the Friday before the kickoff.
When I section hiked in 2006 I had learned my lesson and started
early and came back from Warner Springs.

I don't think I've ever claimed that hikers should be chastised for
planning their hike around the kickoff date so I don't know why
you are criticizing me on that point.

> Last word on the topic fron me.  IMO, detractors can call for the  
> abolition of the KO, but it's not going to change anything  
> considerably.

I'm not an KO abolitionist.  I just think that it is not
reasonable to say:

   The ADZPCTKO event does not affect hiker start dates.

There are considerable reasons to believe that the event *does*
alter hiker start dates (the mean and the deviation).
There are many ways to respond to that situation that
have absolutely nothing to do with moving or cancelling the
Kickoff.

Gary Wright (Radar)