[pct-l] Snowpack & northbounder timing

[robo hiker]

one of the snowiest winters on record here in the n.e. close to 7 feet have fallen in town here so far,waaay over the season average. the snow banks are huge.
 


From: weathercarrot at hotmail.comTo: pct-l at mailman.backcountry.netDate: Sat, 9 Feb 2008 01:42:52 -0500Subject: Re: [pct-l] Snowpack & northbounder timing


Hi Ed - you wrote: << This year has seen lots of train problems both in Donner Pass area as well as the Cascades. So where is all the global warming? I personally believe its exists but it also seems we are having lots more snow problems out west. Is the rest of the USA having the same problem with snow this year.... I think the tornado this week was pretty early also........ In 5/7 years down the road will the dates for starting out in Campo be earlier or later? Weathercarrot? any info here?>> I would just say that southern CA precipitation seasons have always been all over the map as far as precip totals, snow conditions, spring storms (if any), and timing of snow melt. We went from almost all time high spring/summer snowpack in 05 to average in 06 to virtually all-time low precip/snowpack in 07. I think whatever may actually be happening with global climate change in the next 5-10 years would probably leave southern CA with a similar wide range of yearly variation, and very hard to predict. So I think the average Campo time may stay about the same, with potential big differences from season to season. Southern CA still has a long way to go to match the 1998 and 2005 rain/snow seasons, which were about even, with some spots bigger in 98 and other spots bigger in 05. And as far the Sierra, we're still well behind 2005 and 2006 levels, but doing MUCH better than 2007. I would also say that the more relevent snowpack regions for thru-hikers (as far as timing a Campo start) is from San Jacinto to Carson Pass (by Tahoe). Northern CA and the Cascades have less impact because of how late most northbounders arrive there. However, a notable exception was what the earlier 1999 northbounders ran into around Three Sisters and Jefferson Park, where significant August snow navigation was needed. February is far too early to know what kind of summer snow conditions we'll see in those two OR areas. Even if they have similar snow totals by May/June, the melt pattern could be very different. wc 
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