[pct-l] PCT Drop Out Rate

[jeff.singewald at comcast.net]

I would have to agree that the drop-out rate is likely much lower than 80%, though I have no hard data to base this on.  I would also guess that the drop-out rate has decreased over time for a couple of reasons.

One stat that I would be very interested to know is what percentage of PCT thru-hikers make the PCT their first long-distance trail.  For me that was the case, however, it seems that more an more AT vets are coming out west to take another hike.  This would have some impact on a reducing the drop-out rate I would think as these folks have a better idea of what it takes to complete a long-distance hike.

While it is likely less than 50% of the thru-hikers that attend ADZ, I wonder if the ADZ folks have ever taken a survey of this type of profile data?  It would be interesting.






-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: Patrick Beggan <meta474 at gmail.com> 

Drop-out rate inflation is common. When I went into basic training the word in the barracks was "fifty percent drop-out rate!" but in fact we lost about 3 guys out of 60.


I'm sure it's the same for the PCT. I very highly down the dropout rate is 80%. I could believe maybe 40-50% but its probably even less than that. Although it's probably true that most of the dropouts happen in the beginning.






On Jan 13, 2008, at 8:25 PM, Hiker97 wrote:


Over at Tell It On The Mountain (www.tellitonthemountain.com/episode1.html) they mentions that the drop out rate is about 35%.  I always thought it was much higher than that for a thru hike.  I thought the success rate was around 20% going NoBo and the drop out rate about 80%.  I thought that only about 50% of the original class leaving Campo will leave Kennedy Meadows and head into the Sierras.

I know it depends on snow, etc., but what is the average success rate each year?  I am a little confused.

Thanks, Switchback the Rater


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