[pct-l] Timing to avoid the herd

[Eric Payne]

Ok, I know this has been discussed in various threads, but I'd like to
concentrate the ideas into a thread like this.  Does anyone have a guess as
to what percentage of a years thru-hikers begin on Kick-off Weekend?  I am
aware that many people now start a week or so early and hitch back to the
kick-off to avoid the herd.  But is it a large portion of the year's
thru-hiker amount?

I'm probably going to start on April 23rd and blow straight thru Lake Morena
that Friday morning, hoping to be at the front of the herd.  I'm guessing
that I'll be in the first 25% of this years crowd, but it's tough to guess.
What I'm worried about is that even starting on this date and getting 2 days
in front, that I'll still right in the middle of the herd somehow.  If this
is true, I may decide to push my start date back by 2 weeks and know that
I'll get to KM right in time, instead of a bit early if I start around the
time of the KO.