[pct-l] just curious....

[Brian Lewis]

Patti asked: "What is the average date that people get to Tuolumne Meadows
if they start right after kickoff?"

Hi Patti.  I started the day after the kickoff this (okay, now "last") year
and got to Tuolumne Meadows on June 25th.   I don't know what the average
time is for that distance, but I bet that the standard deviation is
significant.

A number of factors impact this --- certainly the same people who left Campo
the day I did (April 27th) spread out on the trail quite a bit over the
subsequent two months (!).

One key factor is how fast the Sierras melt out, and hence, what time you
are able and decide to get started heading north out of Kennedy Meadows.
Another, of course, is just your overall speed, which in turn is impacted by
zero or nero days taken and average miles you walk per day.    That assumes
that injury or illness or family issues or whatever doesn't push you off the
trail for some period en route.

I would be uncomfortable with the idea of someone scheduling anything
specific (vacation from work, transportation plans) for something as
unpredictable as this.   One reason is, as I periodically heard thru-hikers
say: "It sucks to hike to a schedule".   I.e., if you set a specific meeting
date, will you be making yourself unhappy (or worse) stressing to make that
date?  The odds that you would really regret doing so are IMO significant.

My suggestion is that if you offer any arrival estimate that it be a pretty
broad date range, with a lot of caveats.  If friends aren't able to adapt to
meet you, you won't be lonely --- you'll have a great community of fellow
thru's to hang out with and celebrate your near-completion of the Sierras!


Brian Lewis
http://postholer.com/brianle