[pct-l] Heavy Snowpack Prediction

[Paul Bodnar]

I just looked at the snow pack levels from 1958 to 2009 at Bighorn Plateau (BGH) in the High Sierra and found that the average snow pack was 60 inches.  This translates to an average Kennedy Meadows Day of June 19 (Kennedy Meadows Day= June 1 + April Snow Depth at BGH/3.5).  Looking at El Nino years, 1958, 66, 78, 88, 93, 95 and 03 I found that the snow pack was on average 71 inches, with an average Kennedy Meadows Day of June 22.  Looking at the Strong El Nino years, 1973, 83, 92, and 98 I found that the snow pack was on average 90 inches, with an average Kennedy Meadows Day of June 27.  

 

On an encouraging note, the snow pack in 1992, a Strong El Nino year, was just 37.3 inches, a Kennedy Meadows Day of June 13.  So predicting the snow pack for any specific year based on El Nino would be difficult.  However, on average the snow pack appears to be greater on El Nino years.

 

Paul 
 
> From: saintgimp at hotmail.com
> To: freecook at prodigy.net; pct-l at backcountry.net
> Date: Thu, 1 Oct 2009 10:47:56 -0700
> Subject: Re: [pct-l] Heavy Snowpack Prediction
> 
> Chris wrote:
> >
> I've read a couple of predictions recently of heavy snow in the Sierras this
> coming Winter due to the El Nino in the Pacific.  Has anyone else heard
> anything similar, or have experience from prior El Nino years?  Does El Nino
> normally result in a heavy snow pack?
> >
> 
> I don't know anything about predictions for the Sierra, but El Nino years
> typically result in smaller snowpacks in Washington because the jetstream
> often splits and runs storms to the north and south of us.
> 
> Eric
> 
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