[pct-l] 2010 Hiker Migration Estimated

[jeff.singewald at comcast.net]

Paul, 



Just wondering how to identified the 09 data points.  Was this done through a review of PCT trail registers, interviews with 09 thru hikers or another methodology.  I didn't see any data points for Auga Dulce and since the large majority of hikers do stop and Donna and Jeff's home I assume this would be a great data point.  How many specific data points were gathered for your estimates and what mileage per day average did you utilize to map out the linear progression northward? 



Jeff 


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Paul Bodnar" <paulbodnar at hotmail.com> 
To: "Donns Saufley" <dsaufley at sprynet.com>, "pct-L backcountry.net" <pct-l at backcountry.net> 
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 10:16:46 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific 
Subject: Re: [pct-l] 2010 Hiker Migration Estimated 


L-Rod wrote> 
> I noticed that you gave five days between Wrightwood and Agua Dulce. I'm 
> curious about this . . . since most of that section is closed and the 
> outcome pending, much depends on what the alternate turns out to be. If the 
> alternate is trail/dirt road, I'd guess more hikers will take it. 

  

Paul responds.... 

.... I'm just making an estimate based on 09 data and assuming similar conditions.   The snow pack in the Sierra, the alternate routes, this all effects the timing.  But by providing an estimate people (towns and businesses) have something to start a guess at.  This could help them better prepare for the thru-hikers.   It is possible people will decide to start later this season because of the snow levels in the Sierra, or it could be they don't want to hike with the large group of hikers so they leave early or later.  There are so many variables.. I'm just throwing out my best guess based on the limited information I have.   

  

>But if the 
> alternate winds up being a monster road walk, my sense is that the vast 
> majority of hikers will hitch around it by one means or another, shortening 
> that window of five days down to one. And there's always the unknown 
> variables of fires or storms, which can throw a monkey wrench into the 
> forecasting machine. 

  

....I agree, and I think the monkey will be throwing a lot in 2010.  The snow, the alternate routes...and I'm sure a lot of other stuff.  So I'm encouraging other thru-hikers to be ready for a potential difficult but fun year. 


> I've got my popcorn ready and am looking forward to the show, one way or 
> another. Bring it on! 

  

I hope to see you soon :)   

  

Paul 

  

HikeThru.com 

                                                
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