[pct-l] Sorta OT - Abby Sunderland's reality TV show

[Ken Murray]

I understand what you are asking.  I don't find it entirely easy to reply, as I think that it is a little more complicated.  However:

Sailing involves entering into a world of constantly changing situations, some predictable, some not at all.  Long distance single handed sailing is particularly dangerous, as you have to sleep, which means that you must leave the boat unattended at times, usually in the dark, when other boats can't see you.  This is particularly dangerous in severe weather.  Physical endurance becomes an issue, strength becomes an issue, mental toughness becomes an issue.

In a venture in which the cost of failure is often death, you want to have a margin of safety.  You never want to be in a 50-50 situation of survival, repeatedly, as the odds will catch up to you.  You create that margin through experience, and gaining an understanding of the dangers and mitigation.  This takes time.  An excellent example is the training for the early astronaut program.  The training was so intense, that when they actually went up, it was a bit of a letdown, as the real experience was less intense than the training.

A younger person has less time to develop the experiences that give a margin of safety.  As such, they don't develop the "survival sense" that protects one when you are up against it.  When one is exhausted, decision-making goes out the window, and instinct is what rules.  If one has not had the time to develop adequate instincts, then when exhaustion hits, the wrong decisions get made.

For example, to use Abby as an example, three days before her mast snapped, she was in this exact situation.  It was dusk, and the wind was blowing at the extreme of where the boat could sail with regular sails up, in big waves.  The SOP in this situation, is to reduce sail aloft.  If the wind increases at all, you MUST reduce sail, and now you are doing it in the dark, MUCH more dangerous. Abby had been having difficulty with the hardware on her boat in performing sail reduction (we call this reefing), making it all the more imperative that she do it in daylight.

What she actually did, in her words:
"Wild Eyes was heeled over pretty far but the wind seemed steady and so I finished up my work and went to bed. I could feel the wind building a little, but as the auto pilot was still doing very well I didn't get overly worried about it. 

Well, I got into my first squall of the night not long after I went to bed. The pilot went into standby and I went to jump out the companionway, but right as I was at the door I heard rushing water....."
As often happens, things get compounded;
"Back outside, it was pouring buckets of rain. I hadn't bothered to get my foul weather gear on"
Then:
"Wild Eyes was nearly flat on her side and the running back stay was stuck the wrong side of the boom. I clipped onto the boom and climbed onto the end. I would rather not have done that, but under the circumstances there was no other choice. I just hoped that things would stay stable enough while I was out there."

Why did all this happen, where she damaged her boat, and had to expose herself to hypothermia and risk of going overboard?  She was too fatigued to take standard precautions, and did the typical inexperience thing:  hope that it would be ok.

And the problem with inexperienced people, is that they'll do something like that, and get away with it....then they think that it's ok to operate that way.

This is FAR FAR FAR more common in my experience, with younger people with little life experience about how things can go wrong, than with older people who've gotten smacked around a little from life.

So, to come back to the point of your question:  I would be FAR more worried about a 16 y/o, than I would a 30 y/o, simply from the perspective of life experience.  Is it inconceivable that a 16 y/o could be adequately prepared? No.  Is it likely?  No.

But remember that we are talking about a child.  Why are we willing to risk the life of a child?  This is not something they could reasonably attempt on their own. What is the reward vs the risk?  What reward would be worth the serious risk of loss of a child?

Well, when Jessica Watson finished her voyage, she got a $800,000 book deal........

Not enough, in my estimation, after counseling many people who have lost a child.

================
Ken, et al,

So again, setting aside that you (and likely many others with experience) believe she was not competent, the boat setup was not sufficient and the timing was all wrong. Do you also believe that her young age _alone_ should have kept her parents from letting her make the attempt?

BigToe