[pct-l] Probability of Disaster

[Gary Schenk]

An interesting post with much food for thought.

A couple of question:
How many PCTers have died from being under-equipped?
How many PCTers have died from being over-equipped?

On 9/1/2010 4:00 PM, CHUCK CHELIN wrote:
> Good afternoon, all,
>
> I represent the ultra-lite faction when discussing gear.  For a
> long-distance hike I prefer to keep my base weight around 8 lbs, and seldom
> conditionally stretch that to 10-12 lbs.  I’ll admit one of my basic credos
> is, “When in doubt, leave it out.”  That doesn’t leave a lot of margin for
> “difficulty”, but having successfully survived wilderness situations for
> about 50 years I feel comfortable with that approach.
>
>
>
> Sir Winston Churchill once said, “Why, you may take the most gallant sailor,
> the most intrepid airman or the most audacious soldier, put them at a table
> together- what do you get?  The sum of all fears.”  Author, Tom Clancy, like
> that comment so much that he borrowed part of it to use as the title of one
> of his books.
>
>
>
> PCT-L is much like that meeting table:  One expert claims a 4-season tent is
> necessary.  Another says lots of layers of clothes is best.  One claims
> communication is the key with a phone, a two-way radio, and a SPOT.  Another
> advocates having full-on alpine climbing gear.  Occasionally someone feels
> they need to carry a gun to foil the large, carnivorous wildlife.  Someone
> else simply must have a serious, expedition-capable first-aid kit.  It goes
> on and on: All of their arguments seem to have merit but if we take the sum
> of their recommendations to heart we end up carrying a huge load.
>
>
>
> Those who advocate carrying lots of “what if” gear usually claim they want a
> greater margin in the event of a problem.  They say, “What if … (something
> bad)… happens?  I would certainly … (suffer somehow) … with no-one around to
> help.  If I just pack … (an additional item) … I could use it to save my
> life.”
>
>
>
> That all sounds very sensible as we play these “what if” games in our mind,
> but let’s parse that statement and see what it really means.  That statement
> presupposes:
>
> 1)       Something bad could happen, and,
>
> 2)      The result could be a disaster, and,
>
> 3)      There are no options to consider, and,
>
> 4)      An additional piece(s) of gear is the answer, and,
>
> 5)      I can use that gear to resolve the disaster.
>
>
>
> If any of those suppositions are untrue – meaning having a near-0%
> probability of occurring – the entire scenario is either not going to happen
> or the results will be significantly mitigated.  If all five of those
> suppositions are possible, the probability of each actually happening is
> sequentially multiplied.  That’s why it’s called sequential conditional
> logic.
>
> For example, bad things may be possible but they don’t often happen – except
> in our minds.  What’s the chance of our being caught in a freak snowstorm,
> or being stranded on a high-angle snowfield, or encountering a really deep,
> dangerous ford, etc.?  Pick a number – let’s say it’s 20%.
>
> Next, what’s the chance of that event – if it happens -- really being a
> potential disaster?  I don’t mean the discomfort of being soaked to the
> skin; or the inconvenience of a cold, uncomfortable night; I mean something
> that genuinely threatens life and limb?  Again, pick a number -- let’s say
> it’s 10%.
>
> Also, what are the chances that there are no options available to mitigate
> the potentially disastrous possibility?  Is there no-one around to lend a
> hand?  Is there no re-route that can be taken?  Can one not bail out on a
> convenient side trail?  Is it not possible to just continue to hike – even
> night-hike -- to stay warm?  I submit there are almost always options to
> avoid disaster, but let’s say there’s a 20% chance that no viable options
> are available.
>
> Next, what’s the chance that an extra piece(s) of gear will really save the
> day?  It can happen:  Maybe a nice 4-season tent would help.  Maybe a
> generous array of alpine climbing gear would get us off the hook.  Maybe a
> GPS would help us find our way back to the trail. Maybe a really full-on set
> of storm gear with extra clothing would save the day, etc.  Gear won’t get
> us out all troubles, but I’ll say there’s a 50% chance it will.
>
> Finally, what’s the probability that we actually know how to effectively
> employ that extra gear?  A tent we can pitch; clothes we can put on, etc,
> but many – or most -- hikers can’t use climbing gear; most can’t use GPS
> effectively; and the contents of a big “survival kit” or an expedition
> first-aid kit are largely a mystery.  A gun?  Very likely the average hiker
> couldn’t hit a circus tent with it at any range over 10 feet.  I guess the
> odds of a hiker being actually able to use specialized extra gear to be 50%
> at best.
>
> So here’s how it stacks up:  The likelihood,
>
> … of an event happening, 20%
>
> … of it being potential disaster,  10%
>
> … of few/no options or help being available,  20%
>
> … of gear being the substantial answer, 50%
>
> … of expertise being available to employ gear, 50%
>
> Now comes the “sequential” part:  Multiply 0.20 x 0.10 x 0.20 x 0.50 x 0.50
> and see that the result of that conditional string equals 0.001 which is
> 0.1%.  That’s a one tenth of one percent likelihood of all that happening.  I,
> for one, am not going to carry very much extra gear against such a
> probability.  Don’t quarrel with my numbers; plug in your own.
>
> Your results may vary – as will your pack weight.
>
>
>
> “Tools are deceiving.  They have a way of making you think you can use them,
> as you study them and imagine yourself owing them...  There is no name for
> this quality that tools -- have, but it’s undeniable.”
>
> -- Geoffrey Norman, *Outside*, Oct. 1986
>
>
>
> Steel-Eye
>
> Hiking the Pct since before it was the PCT – 1965
>
> http://www.trailjournals.com/steel-eye
>
> http://www.trailjournals.com/SteelEye09
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