[pct-l] Snow depth guesstimate

[ned at mountaineducation.org]

Hi, Mike!

Thanks for asking, but as you said, there is no real degree of certainty how 
much snow will be up in the Sierra by the time you get there. However, it is 
certain that you will have snow to some degree and depth as you progress out 
of Kennedy Meadows toward Forester Pass and beyond.

I was just told that the southern Sierra is currently holding 200+% of its 
"normal" snowpack. What does this translate to for the thru hiker? Even if 
the weather dries up from here out, you'll probably have snow to contend 
with along the PCT in the higher reaches of the Sierra, so learn how to 
hike, camp, navigate, and in all other ways travel in snow.

"But I'll get cold and wet and won't be able to do my required 24 miles per 
day!" Many of our Snow Course students ask this during every weekend 
training and our response is to simply change your plans to match what 
you're able to do in the reality of the conditions expected. What does that 
mean? It means that it is much harder to hike over snow than you think, so 
you should cut your mileage expectancies in half and double your food. In 
your planning stage go out and camp in the snow. Find out what that requires 
of your gear, food, and clothing. Then do a multi-day snow trip where you 
have to snowshoe 5 or 8 miles each day and see what that does to you. You'll 
find that if you know what to expect and plan accordingly, you'll do just 
fine whether there is 12 inches or 12 feet of snow under you.

Yes you can hike over snow for days on end without getting cold or wet! We 
teach and demonstrate this to our students every winter and spring. What you 
choose to do, carry, eat, and wear is another matter and certainly your 
choice. All we ask as wilderness emergency responders and outdoor skill 
trainers is that you learn what it takes to do what you expect to do in the 
conditions realistically encountered at the time of year and altitude where 
you're going so that you don't get into trouble.

 Every hiking season we hear of thru hikers (for they are the ones out there 
so early in the season) who run out of food, hike in cold and wet shoes 
daily, slip on the snow and get hurt, get lost, try to hike too far in the 
snow and get exhausted, and suffer through nasty creek crossings after which 
they either have to be rescued or leave the trail disappointed, 
disillusioned, or worse. Our wish at Mountain Education is that every hiker 
have the trip of their dreams, one that is fun and safe and who's stories 
afterwards cause others to desire the same. Research from those who have 
already done the hike what they encountered, test yourself in those 
conditions, plan accordingly, and start your thru hike prepared and the 
wiser for it!


"Just remember, Be Careful out there!"

Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
1106A Ski Run Blvd
South Lake Tahoe, Ca. 96150
    P: 888-996-8333
    F: 530-541-1456
    C: 530-721-1551
    http://www.mountaineducation.org
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Michael Yanasak" <amuddler2 at gmail.com>
To: <info at mountaineducation.org>
Sent: Thursday, January 20, 2011 9:25 PM
Subject: Snow depth guesstimate


Mr. Ned Tibbits,

My lady friend and I are considering thru-hiking the PCT beginning in April. 
Initially, we were a bit intimidated by the rumors of a larger than average 
snow fall in the Sierras, and we considered postponing the hike until next 
year.  On looking at the Dept. of Water resources site re snow depths and 
sort of
interpolating (because apparently they don't use the depth at Bighorn 
Plateau as a benchmark as they do in the PCT Data Book), and sort of 
averaging the snow depths for a few past years, it appears as though the 
snow depth for this year is roughly in line with that of most former years.
Would you say that my conclusion approximates reality?

I realize that one cannot really say with any real degree of certainty what 
things will look like in April,  of course, but we are beginning to make 
some decisions about our hike and any input you could offer would be 
appreciated.

Are there any other sites we might monitor which would give us more 
information?

Thank you.

Mike Yanasak=