[pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
Peter Shaw
pshaw999 at cox.net
Tue Mar 29 23:16:44 CDT 2011
Paul,
I believe your math is wrong. I actually reached the border in 132 ½ days
after leaving Campo and that period divides into the “official” distance of
2650 miles to give an exact daily average of 20.0 (I’m an engineer and
cannot help being so anal retentive - I actually beat the target I set by
two hours). That pace includes all of the zeros & neros I took. My point
about Dan’s late start is if he leaves on 26 May that is 17 days later than
I started. If he maintains my pace, then he’ll arrive on 5 Oct. As you
pointed out, the risk of taking the hike into October is the potential for
big snow storms in Washington, but that is clearly the gamble he is going to
take. If Dan can pull off 25 miles per day (including zeros, etc) then
he’ll get there in 106 days or 9 Sep. Personally, I think that is a tough
challenge for most people although quite possible. I met a guy on day 3 who
left Campo the day after me and was one of the first to arrive in Canada in
‘09. But I was giving him a 30 years advantage. Don’t get me wrong, I know
it’s not a race and we all should simply adopt our own individual pace that
is comfortable and minimizes injury risk. But I just don’t think Dan has
eliminated his chance of finishing with a late May start date based on my
trip stats (which I consider to be about average). Whether Dan can match or
even exceed that pace is for him to decide on his own.
Peanut Eater
From: Paul Robison [mailto:paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 6:13 PM
To: Peter Shaw
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
that came out wrong ... i didn't mean it like 'dude you'll never make it'
but you averaged 20.9 miles a day, even with your zeros...
... he's going to have to average 25 miles a day; even with all his zeros.
that's really pushing by most humans standards ... not to say he can't or
won't do it, but the odds get statistically harder. or else all the sierra
snow he avoided will be made up in spades come Washington.
all i had said in the beginning was you won't find very many thrus in the
last week of may... or course there will be some, even fewer who make it.
_____
From: Peter Shaw <pshaw999 at cox.net>
To: Paul Robison <paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com>; Dan Engleman
<danengleman at yahoo.com>; dan rapkin <clawsabre97 at hotmail.com>
Cc: pct-l at backcountry.net
Sent: Tue, March 29, 2011 8:58:09 PM
Subject: RE: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
I beg to differ. I left Campo on May 9 and reached Manning Park on 18 Sep.
If Dan can match my sixty-year-old pace, he'll get there the first week of
October. Most years that will be OK. He'll also catch up a bit in the
Sierras where the snow will abate significantly from what the early herd
experience.
My personal opinion is that mid May is the sweet spot for a successful thru
hike. I think all those folks that leave well before the kickoff make it
much harder for themselves.
Just my take.
Peanut Eater
-----Original Message-----
From: pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net [mailto:pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net]
On Behalf Of Paul Robison
Sent: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 5:42 PM
To: Dan Engleman; dan rapkin
Cc: <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
there will be three or four, 90% of which won't make it to Canada. unless
you're a scott williamson... the people who start that late and make it are
of
an entirely different breed.
actually i wonder if halfmile's list graphs the success rate as people start
later and later, to find a sweet spot for making it based on start date.
________________________________
From: Dan Engleman <danengleman at yahoo.com>
To: Paul Robison <paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com>; dan rapkin
<clawsabre97 at hotmail.com>
Cc: "<pct-l at backcountry.net>" <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Tue, March 29, 2011 8:37:11 PM
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
I am going to thru hike this year and am leaving Campo on May 26th ...
Dan
________________________________
From: Paul Robison <paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com>
To: dan rapkin <clawsabre97 at hotmail.com>
Cc: "<pct-l at backcountry.net>" <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Tue, March 29, 2011 4:05:51 PM
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
You won't find many thrus that late in the season.
Depending on weather 4 or 5 miles per litter is a good guideline. But know
your
limits and be prepared for 20 to 25 miles between water sources.
Rattlers will be active; cougars less so. Bears no issue that far south
Hope this helps,
~Paul
Sent from my iPod
On 2011-03-29, at 6:58 PM, dan rapkin <clawsabre97 at hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> Hey guys,
> I had initially planned a PCT trip for the middle of January, however, due
to
>lack of funds I was forced to postpone it until the end of May.I will
hiking
>with 3 other people for at least a week with the intention of completing
all of
>Section A.
>
> My plan is fly out from Rochester NY on the 22nd of May and arrive in San
>Diego, climb at Jtree for a couple days before starting the hike.My
question is
>thus, I have been informed by a friend that SoCal is having a bit of a wet
>season, which I thought was uncharacteristic for the time of year that I
plan to
>be hiking, soHow scarce will water be, and how much should I potentially
bring?
>I know it's about a gallon per person, per day and we will not be bringing
a
>stove, just utilizing cold foods.Also, how concerned should I be about the
local
>fauna, rattlers and cougars and such?Any and all help is appreciated and I
hope
>to see you all on the trail!
> -Dan 'the rasta man'
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