[pct-l] PCT-L - Most Common Causes of Thru-Dropout

[ned at mountaineducation.org]

I don't know the numbers, but after following each year's class since 1982, 
I'd say that the completion percentage has not gone up much. We used to 
consider it to be about 25%. I hear that it may be around 30%, now. I would 
have thought that all the lighter pack weights, better logistics, more input 
from past hikers on pre-training, trail angles, water caches, and the like 
would have done more to improve the percentage, but what we see is that 
there are still a lot of "rose-colored glasses" out there during the 
Planning/Preparation stage.

Translated, hikers with only multiple short-trip experiences think they will 
have no problem at all with a 5 or 6-month adventure like the PCT or CDT. 
Most have never even snow-hiked and figure they can "just learn from someone 
else on the trail" as they naively plan from their dry homes and imagine a 
dry, summer trail all the way to Canada. Yes, it can be like that, but the 
window of opportunity is narrow, time-wise, and necessitates fast walking 
over tough ground in all conditions. If a thru hike planner knows from 
experience that they can do that, go for it! But there's that 
word--Experience!

Get it before you go!



"Just remember, Be Careful out there!"

Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
South Lake Tahoe, Ca. 96150
    P: 888-996-8333
    F: 530-541-1456
    C: 530-721-1551
    http://www.mountaineducation.org
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Jim & Jane Moody" <moodyjj at comcast.net>
To: "Jeff Judd" <frotiss_lupus at yahoo.com>
Cc: "PCT listserve" <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 11:05 AM
Subject: Re: [pct-l] PCT-L - Most Common Causes of Thru-Dropout


>
>
> JJ,
>
> From my layman's experience on the PCT (half done) and the AT (thru'ed in 
> '06), it seems that foot and leg injuries are by far the most common type 
> of hike-ending injuries. When you think about it, this is obvious, since 
> your feet and legs are doing all the work, while your arms, head, ears, 
> fingers, etc. are just along for the ride.
>
>
>
> Traumatic injuries caused by a single accident occur every year but are 
> probably relatively rare. Same with snake bites, bear and cougar gnawings, 
> and hernias. Of course, this is not to diminish their seriousness - on 
> average, I believe a hiker dies on a thru-hike every year or so. On the 
> PCT it is usually due to accident, fall, drowning, etc. On the AT, heart 
> attack.
>
> In my case, repetitive stress injuries on the knees forced me off in '10 
> and '11. I'd guess that this is the most common type of trail injury - 
> pushing too hard to make miles, day after day, with inadequate rest.
>
>
>
> And I'm glad you don't drink beer. That means there's more for me.
>
>
>
> Mango
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
>
> From: "Jeff Judd" <frotiss_lupus at yahoo.com>
> To: "PCT listserve" <pct-l at backcountry.net>
> Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 1:18:02 PM
> Subject: [pct-l] PCT-L - Most Common Causes of Thru-Dropout
>
> Quick background - my wife and I are planning on thru-hiking in 2013. 
> We're currently gathering and testing gear as well as increasing our hike 
> mileage and frequency. My wife just got a different/better job which will 
> allow us to hike together much more frequently as we ramp up our training. 
> Very excited to get this journey underway. I've wanted to hike the PCT 
> ever since I first heard about it as a wee Cub Scout. Albeit that was only 
> 13 years ago.
>
>
> As we watched the 2010 class DVD that Tortoise mailed us, (Thank you!) I 
> was reminded of the Nat Geo special on the PCT where it showed the thrus 
> gathered at kickoff and stated "only half will make it..." dun dun dun! 
> The numbers commonly tossed around are roughly 300 attempt per year with 
> ~half finishing. Which begs the question, how do I avoid being one of 
> those that do not make it? I
>
>
> My understanding based upon lurking on this list since last November is 
> that the most common cause of dropout is lack of funds or injury. My wife 
> and I are setting aside money already and planning our finances etc for us 
> to be gone up to six month, so I don't expect the financials to cause us 
> to drop out. We're not particularly big party animals, and as neither of 
> us drink alcohol it sounds like we'll save a fortune on beer in town 
> compared to the average thru. Which leaves the possibility of injury 
> knocking us out. Are the hike ending injuries typically things that can be 
> avoided by proper conditioning and training (repetitive motion injuries 
> etc?) or are they more likely to be unfortunate events like falling and 
> breaking an ankle?
>
> tl;dr - In your experiences what are the most common injuries and causes 
> of hiker dropout? What can we do to avoid these pitfalls? Any particular 
> training we should consider beyond hiking, hiking, and more hiking?
>
> Any points for consideration will be greatly appreciated.
>
>
> PS It was amazing how many of the locations I recognized in the 2010 class 
> DVD as the famous sites along the PCT. Hiker oasis, third gate, Painted 
> Lady, Forrester, Eagle Rock, Muir Hut, Warner Springs, Mt Shasta etc etc. 
> Places I've never been before. It was only then that I realized how much I 
> obsess over the trail looking at maps and pictures and reading journals. 
> Suffice it to say my wife was sufficiently weirded out by the whole thing.
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