[pct-l] What the weather is telling us

[Ken Murray]

Check out the graph linked below:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/precipapp/get5SIPrecipStaticIndex.action

We are now about tied for the lowest precip in Ca recorded history.  This has some ramifications.

There are those who say, "well, it's early, who knows what may happen."

They are wrong.  Possibilities are being forestalled.

For example, if one looks at the graph, and looks at today, there near the bottom.  Then take a ruler, and lay it parallel to the WETTEST YEAR IN HISTORY, in green.  The traditional rainfall year ends in April, so follow the ruler up, at the slope of the wettest year, until it intersects with April.  That is where we will be, if the precip begins today, and comes down equal to the BIGGEST RAINFALL IN HISTORY.  You will see that we will be at about 40 inches, an AVERAGE precip year.

The odds of having the skys open and experiencing rain/snow equal to the greatest in recorded history until April are REMOTE, probably less than 1:100.  And that only brings us up to an AVERAGE year.

If, from here out, we have AVERAGE precip, we will end up with 20 inches by Ap 1st, about 50% of normal.  Odds of that don't seem high, either.

SO-----it is VERY unlikely that there will be a higher than average snow year in the Sierra.  It says nothing about the quality of the snow, nor the temperatures which will determine melt rate.

BUT, for planning purposes, there may be a real opportunity for an early Sierra start this year.  This is probably the year for a 'yo-yo'.

Your mileage may vary, but March is not the time to start thinking about this!  Trail crews are already altering plans.