[pct-l] Reality Check on Craig's PCT Planner

[Ken Powers]

Big Toe is right on with the hours per day.

I have a funny story about planning our 2005 hike of the ADT. I took data 
from the ADT and put it into a huge spreadsheet (roughly based on Craig's 
PCT Planner). I wanted to be realistic so I looked at each small segment. If 
it was flat or a roadwalk I said we would walk 3 mph. Uphill or trails were 
more like 2 or 2.25 mph. Since we live in CA we started at Pt Reyes. We 
crossed the sierra early in our hike so we couldn't start until about 
mid-May.

When I ran the first estimate I didn't like the results. We would finish 
early 2006. More toying around with the estimates only got us to the 
Atlantic in January. We didn't think we wanted to finish on the east coast 
in winter. I flipped my spreadsheet to start March 1 at the Atlantic.

My first reaction was something was wrong with my spreadsheet when I flipped 
it. It now had us finishing in mid-Oct. The trip started earlier, but was 
many weeks shorter! Further analysis showed it was the long hours of summer 
daylight while crossing flat Kansas that had the greatest impact on our 
schedule.

This schedule had us hitting the Rockies in early July (after snowmelt) and 
the sierra in early September (before snowfall). Perfect!

By the way, we almost kept that schedule while hiking 5000 miles. We were 4 
days late. Funnily the biggest impact on our schedule was the thunderstorms 
in Kansas that shortened many of our hiking days. But we made up time in 
Utah and Nevada where there was no place to stop to socialize or get a cold 
drink.

Ken
www.GottaWalk.com
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "David Ellzey" <david at xpletive.com>
To: "b j" <xthrow at yahoo.com>; <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Monday, January 14, 2013 2:40 AM
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Reality Check on Craig's PCT Planner


You should really adjust your hours foremost. In June you will have 
something like 15 hours of light (including twilight) so I doubt you'd want 
to sit almost half the day in a camp. As a base, use 12 hours a day for the 
entire hike and adjust from there. Also, unless you are in REALLY good shape 
starting out you will want to adjust your hike speed down to 1.9 mph and 
slowly increase it up to about 2.5 by Tahoe (assuming a NoBo hike) or faster 
if you know you are a fast hiker. You can also zero out the elevation gain 
penalty by Tahoe as well.

BigToe

-----Original Message-----
From: pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net [mailto:pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net] 
On Behalf Of b j
Sent: Monday, January 14, 2013 3:17 AM
To: pct-l at backcountry.net
Subject: [pct-l] Reality Check on Craig's PCT Planner

Warning: Data geek alert for what follows!

I need a reality check off of Craig's PCT Planner at www.pctplanner.com

I put in a basic scenario just going with the defaults and I needed hear 
what people do differently for planning scenarios or in reality.

Start: April 15, 2013
Default speed: 2.25 mi/h
Default actual hiking time: 8 hr/d
Default elevation penalty (for every 1000 ft climbed add:) 45 min

With NO resupply days off, I get a Manning Park arrival of Oct 9th -- ouch! 
What do I tweak? Hours hiking / day? , elevation penalty?, is the default 
speed considered slow? Because I know you all take days off here and there 
go into town to freshen up your pretty faces! :-)

As a comparison, Ray Jardine's 5-month plan has 1 zero day / week, an 
average speed of 2.75 mi/hr and 8 hrs hiking a day. If I up Craig's PCT 
planner speed to 2.75 mi/hr, I get an arrival of Sept 13, but that's still 
without any zero days anywhere.

Is 2.25 or even 2.75 mi/hr still too slow?  Anybody know the pack's average 
hiking speed (or does that vary considerably)? recommended hours hiked per 
day to make it to the border? recommended max zeros? Are the defaults for 
Craig's PCT planner tortoisely conservative?

Thanks,

-Rhiannon

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