[pct-l] Current Storm Snowfall Expected

[rbelshee]

The "up to 13 inch" was the sum over five intervals of time of the maximum prediction of snow. The actual combined probability of snow in all five time intervals is just 15%, and is spread over a range of 7-13 inches. The expected value is more like 5 inches.  So the warning was for a potential situation that hikers need to anticipate, but is highly unlikely. Snow of under an inch or two is just as likely.

Rod "Steady" Belshee
hikepaddle.blogspot.com

-------- Original message --------
From: robert <bobbilbo at msn.com>
Date:04/02/2014  9:58 AM  (GMT-08:00)
To: pct-l at backcountry.net
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Current Storm Snowfall Expected

Not sure where Ned Tibbits got his forecast but it wasn't from the Weather Service, the link to the San Diego office's forecast is for a max of around 3 inches.  I checked the computer models and agree with NWS.

There will be dangerous wind chill today in the SoCal mountains.

Bob "Bilbo" Livezey
_______________________________________________
Pct-L mailing list
Pct-L at backcountry.net
To unsubscribe, or change options visit:
http://mailman.backcountry.net/mailman/listinfo/pct-l

List Archives:
http://mailman.backcountry.net/pipermail/pct-l/
All content is copyrighted by the respective authors.
Reproduction is prohibited without express permission.