[pct-l] 2014 Snow, Water and Start Date

[Ned Tibbits]

Great point, Jen, regarding entering the sierra early enough to get to 
Canada before the snow flies!

If it were said that there are "bookends" to the summer's thru-hiking 
season, they are only powder snow at either end.

Leave the southern border early enough to reach Canada by mid-September (per 
the Manning PP Rangers). Pay attention to your use/misuse of time along the 
way to assure this (time off trail and too many zeros). Did you hear 
Jennifer's sadness/disappointment at being denied reaching the border 
because of snow? That's real! Enjoy your hike, but pay attention to your 
schedule if you want to complete your dream in one shot.

Yes, there are benefits to leaving the southern border "early!" You might 
have more water flowing on/near the trail in SoCal and cooler air temps for 
more enjoyable hiking during the sunny days. These two plusses can add up to 
a big deal for the hiker fresh out of the blocks and still getting used to 
hiking day-in and day-out! Don't burn out early trying to accomplish more 
than you body can accept (heat, physical exhaustion, too many miles too 
early, not enough days off for the body to heal, etc.).

For a personal reference, I left the Mexican border March 14th and had no 
water, heat, snow, or dust issues in SoCal. Yes, I did have a few really 
cold nights, but that was it. I did have snow all the way from Kennedy 
Meadows to Oregon, but I just got used to it, enjoyed the snow-bridge 
crossings of the big creeks and the fun slides off the passes, and learned 
to navigate in the trees when I couldn't see the trail. My daily mileage 
dropped in half and my food intake doubled over snow, but I got caught up to 
my trip's schedule through Oregon and Washington where I had dry-trail to 
fly over. (Luckily, I had planned on a trip average of 17 miles per day and 
a day off every 5 days, so I had room work with!) I arrived at Manning 
September 2.

The northern "bookend" is more important than the southern one for 
north-bound folks because of the likelihood of hike-termination due to fresh 
powder snowfall after mid-September. How fast you like/want to hike, how 
many zeros you need, and how you manage your use of time will dictate when 
you start from the south.

The presence of powder snow at the southern end, the "southern bookmark," is 
usually consolidated enough to walk on, rather than through, by March 1st, 
so that becomes the real, minimal-hazard start date. You can learn how to 
deal with it or just walk around it.

Our students ask, "If I plan on leaving that early, won't I have feet of 
snow through the sierra?" Yes, you might, but as we tell them, "It doesn't 
matter whether you have 8 inches or 8 feet of snow underfoot, you walk on it 
the same way." Don't fear snow. Slow down and enjoy it! Don't wait for it 
all to melt, either, like you're afraid of it. It will put your Canadian 
arrival date too late. Learn how to deal with your obstacles/hazards before 
you see them (building your confidence) and you will have a happier, safer 
thru hike in the end.

Weather and on-trail conditions-wise, if you seek the ideal, you may have to 
wait a while!


Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
www.mountaineducation.org
-----Original Message----- 
From: Jennifer Zimmerman
Sent: Tuesday, January 14, 2014 8:55 AM
To: pct-l at backcountry.net
Subject: Re: [pct-l] 2014 Snow, Water and Start Date

Wow!  I knew snow was low this year but didn't realize HOW low.

Barry is right on.  We started a week before KO this year and, like
everyone, worried a lot about water in the desert.  We would have started
earlier but coming all the way from the midwest and full-time jobs this
wasn't an option. I'm glad we started before KO because our water sources
were low almost the entire way to the Sierras and it was already hot as
heck.  Luckily, the only really scummy source was down off the desert
divide coming into Idyllwild; tough to know how this will affect hikers
this year with the fire closure. Tylerhorse Creek (sp?), after the aqueduct
walk in the Mojave, was very low and looked to my inexperienced eyes like
it might dry up pretty soon. The other really hard dry stretch that sticks
in my mind was the last 30-40 miles before Walker Pass.

We were also in the group that got shut out by the snow this year. Threw in
the towel at Rainy Pass because it didn't feel safe with the snow and the
washouts north of Hart's Pass.  Forget two weeks - we would have made it
with another 3 days of clear weather!  We moved much slower than most
folks, but I'd gone as hard and fast as I personally could the entire way
and it was pretty disappointing to miss the border by the skin of our
teeth.  I've been telling myself that it's a small price to pay for three
weeks of no snow in the Sierra.

On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 7:35 AM, James Vesely
<jvesely at sstinternational.com>wrote:

> Here is another graph with last year's snowpack showing.
>
>
> http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC
>
>
>
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