[pct-l] snow conditions 2015

[ned at mountaineducation.org]

If anyone is interested, last night I put up a few pictures of the Forester 
area in May taken between 2006 and 2014 onto the Facebook page, "PCT Class 
of 2015." What you'll see are conditions ranging from 8-12 feet of snow 
(snowline down to 9500 feet) to 4-5 feet with snowline closer to 11,000.

As Walt said, sierra storms are unpredictable, as can be seen in the chart 
Alice Bodnar posted to the same FB page yesterday from Guthookhikes.com: 
(which also shows that March and April can be the big snow-dump months!)

http://www.guthookhikes.com/2015/02/2015-high-sierra-snow-pack.html

The best thing to do is to stop speculating and just prepare for snow and/or 
a lack of water. Sometimes I am concerned that this quest for the lightest 
pack is causing hikers to do without and "hope for the best," rather than 
being aware of what could and has happened and travel prepared (which may 
mean you carry some stuff that you maybe won't use)...



Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education, Inc.
www.mountaineducation.org
ned at mountaineducation.org


Mission:
"To minimize wilderness accidents, injury, and illness in order to maximize 
wilderness enjoyment, safety, and personal growth, all through experiential 
education and risk awareness training."
-----Original Message----- 
From: walt Durling
Sent: Tuesday, February 10, 2015 2:34 AM
To: Jason Torbitzky
Cc: pct-l at backcountry.net
Subject: Re: [pct-l] snow conditions 2015

Jason
The Sierra is nothing if not unpredictable in spring.  There's still weeks 
of winter left which could yet bring much snow to the trail. Last year I 
encountered a snow storm just south of whitney portal area in early May, and 
was postholing off on for parts of 2 days to the south.  Whitney itself 
received a lot of snow from that storm.  If you look at pics from last year, 
the early hikers encountered snow conditions at high elevations, but not 
enough to put the brake on those intrepid souls.  Bottom line: if conditions 
are like last hear, an early start will work.  But no one will know yet for 
another 6 weeks.  If you start early, count on tempestuous weather, 
including overnight freezing as a norm.

Sent from my iPad

> On Feb 9, 2015, at 22:21, Jason Torbitzky <jasontorbitzky at gmail.com> 
> wrote:
>
> First time thru-hike attempter here. From what I can gather looking at
> postholer and snow pack conditions on the PCTA's site, it looks like
> California snowpack is (thus far) almost as low as it could get. Does that
> mean an earlier Sierra-entry date would be *more* safe, or that a standard
> mid-June entry would mean extremely little snow? I'm trying to choose a
> start date (and squeeze as much time out of the early season as I can due
> to August/September obligations), and also determine how essential tools
> like an ice axe and microspikes will be this season. I heard that 2013, 
> for
> example, was a low enough year that many people started in mid-March. Any
> wisdom would be much appreciated.
>
> Thanks, all!
> Jason
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