[pct-l] 2015 and SOBO

[Barry Teschlog]

In hearing some of those numbers about permits and dates and the like, it's clearly going to be a record breaking year for numbers in So Cal - the herd is going to be epic (I just looked - 1494 from now through the end of May, 679 in the two weeks before KO Sunday).  Some individuals are probably considering a SOBO hike to avoid the masses.  While the superficial indications are that this may be a year to do so, upon further investigation, it might not be such a great idea or might take a bit of additional flexibility or planning.

The last really "good" year to SOBO was probably 2005 when the Cascades of Washington had a very low snow pack.  I was a NOBO section hiker that year, going from White Pass / Highway 12 to Snoqualmie Pass / I-90 in the first few days of July.  I recall passing dozens of straight up SOBO's and flip-floppers (as 2005 also had a very high Sierra snow pack).  Given where I was, the SOBO's and flippers that were starting south from Hart's Pass, would have done so roughly 12-17 or so days prior.

First off, what are the superficial indications that 2015 might be a good year to SOBO:

1)  The ski areas in Washington are getting crushed by the lack of snow.  Snoqualmie Pass (I-90) ski area is shut down until further notice, until they get more snow.  Snotel sensors in the Snoqualmie Pass area are at epic low values, indicating ~1-2 feet of snow cover as of this date.

2)  Stevens Pass (US 2) Snotel sensors are, on this date, nearly as low as the 2005 values on the same date.  2005 was a banner year to SOBO.

3)  Western Washington has had a very warm winter.  Not that it's been a dry winter, as rain totals are not super low, but certainly a warm one - see the above ski areas.

The anticipated sheer numbers in So Cal and other factors (So Cal drought for example) might make a person who wants to avoid the mass herd in So Cal knee jerk to a SOBO hike.  Fair enough......but be sure to look closely at all the information before deciding, or make your plans according to the actual conditions.  It's not so simple.......

Check out the Harts Pass and Rainy Pass Snotel sensors.  For perspective, Hart's Pass is ~30 miles from the border and is the northernmost drivable access point on the PCT.  Rainy Pass is where the PCT crosses the North Cascades Highway, ~31 miles south of Hart's Pass and ~20 miles north of Stehekin.  These are at a significantly higher elevation than Stevens Pass and the areas around Snoqualmie Pass.

The Harts and Rainy Pass snotel sensors are showing incredibly close to normal levels of snow pack for this time of year, in stark contrast to the values on this date from 2005 and in stark contrast to those at lower elevations or further south.  

While it's too soon to hazard a guess at what will happen, prudence indicates that a person considering a SOBO this year should plan for at least a "normal" progression of snow from this point forward and then the subsequent melt off.  "Best case" for a SOBO (although worst from a water supply perspective) would be for it to stop snowing at higher elevations and for a fast melt.  Worst case for a SOBO-er would be for heavier than normal snow going forward and a slow melt off.

Note that typically, the north Cascades don't max out the snow pack until early to mid April.  Even in 2005, there were significant accumulations after mid February and before mid April, and the areas has also had late melt offs in 2011 and 2012.

Given the pretty normal snow at higher elevations at the north end of the trail, potential SOBO-ers should consider alternate start points and strategies that would avoid the highest, northernmost parts of the trail, at least at the start of the SOBO.  Consider getting on at Stevens Pass / Highway 2 or Snoqualmie Pass / I-90 in lieu of at Hart's Pass and just go south.  Flip back north at an appropriate time to bag those miles (say from Ashland, to pick a point with convenient air, rail and bus service to and from the Seattle area and that takes a bit of time to hike to, allowing the melt to happen).

YMMV.  HYOH.  2 cents.  Free advice being worth what is paid.  Yadda, yadda, yadda.....