[pct-l] Flip Flop Start

[Barry Teschlog]

Scott Wrote:I'm excited about the snow we have this yea.r I think it will make the PCT
more of an adventure. But I was thinking I'd start mid-April and that may
necessitate a flip-flop. My next thought  was that maybe I should just
start off with a flip-flop? That is start my hiking somewhere north of Lake
Tahoe.  My thought was that doing so I could avoid some of the large pack
leaving from the Mexican border and have a better overall hiking
experience.

So I have two questions for the wisdom of the list:

   - If I start North of Tahoe in Mid-April where would be a good place to
   start?
   - I don't want to hike in 110 degree desert heat so when is the latest
   folks would recommend for flipping back to the border?

Maybe this plan isn't practical at all?

Thanks in advance,

       -Scott


Reply:Executive Summary:  Forget the flip flop for snow reasons.  Too little snow to consider.  As you say, it isn't practical.


Longer version.
Don't bother even considering a flip flop, if it's for snow reasons, at this point in time.
So far, this year's snow is, at best, average.  Looking at the current Postholer estimates in the Sierra, some sensors are below average SWE for the date, some above, but none are far above average.  All in all, SO FAR, it's shaping up to be a very average year, El Nino hype notwithstanding.  And after the last few years of drought, I'm sure California would be grateful to get a "typical" load of snow / water for once.  For hikers, I suspect since it's been several years since a "normal" snow year, many won't have the proper frame of reference as to what is normal and expected.

That said, there's plenty of winter yet to go and snow doesn't typically peak until about April 1 plus melt off is highly influenced by weather in April and May - cool and wet versus warm and dry makes a huge difference.

Start in Mid April at Campo, do a straight NOBO.  Go into the Sierra when you get to KM - at a typical thru hiker pace, that should be late May to early-ish June.  In anything like a "normal" year, the Sierra is quite passable any time from late May, getting progressively "easier" each day.  Heck, in the super high snow year of 2006 when I hiked, it was quite passable to the motivated, reasonably trained and reasonably equipped thru hiker leaving KM a day "early" - e.g. June 14, when the so-called (and now obsolete concept) of "Ray Day" is June 15.  Plenty of other hikers in '06 pushed into the Sierra before me, so it was quite doable even earlier.  There are plenty of other people in high(er) snow years going in the late May / early June time frame - don't let it intimidate you.

If there is still too much snow for your taste as you move north (monitor it as you go- that is what the smart phone is for), it's easy to slow down and push your KM date back - pull a few extra zero's in Big Bear, Wrightwood, Mojave / Techapai, or Lake Isabella.  Head down to LA from Agua Dulce for a few days of rest / entertainment.  Do less miles per day, etc, etc, etc.

As for flipping to a point north, consider this fact:  I doubt you'll find any significant contiguous stretches of trail clear north of Tahoe in mid April.  The further north you go, typically, the lower the snow level is, to match the lower trail elevations.   Just suck it up and deal with a bit of snow in the Sierra - it's not all that difficult and it makes for spectacular hiking.  Yogi has good info on how much you can expect to see in a "typical" year - 2-4 miles on either side of the passes isn't that hard to deal with.


Factual sources used for the above recommendations:
Using the historical feature on Postholer, Jan 12, 2006 (a very high snow year, one in which if there was an option to do so, flip flopping would have been a real option to consider) had snow sensors for the High Sierra at 122% to 193% of "normal".    Jan 12, 2016 they're between 47% and 110% of "normal".
Looking at the snow charts at:http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.actionThese note that the south Sierra is at a lower fraction of their typical April 1 value than either the central or north Sierra (38% versus 50% and 53% respectively).  Yes its early, but if the trend continues, the South Sierra would be more favorable anyways.

YMMV.  IMO.  Opinions being worth what you paid.  All the other usual caveats.
TC.'06