[pct-l] El Nino vs. La Nina: Potentially Postpone?

[Scott Williams]

Hey Cody,

If you're starting in Mid May at the Mexican border, you should be able to
enter the Sierra without a big snow delay by the time you get there.
Starting in early April, my group entered the Sierra the first week of June
in 2010, a high snow year and we had plenty of snow, but it was doable.
You'll be several weeks to a month later.  In a high snow year, you'll
still have snow by late June/early July, but it'll be very hard pack and
mostly on the passes.  I'd start this year no matter what.  If you've only
got 3 months available this year and next, you may have to do it in 2 big
sections anyway, even in a low snow year, unless you're one incredibly fast
hiker, and maybe you are.  But 3 months in the best of years is very fast
to finish the whole trail.  Some folks do hike that fast, but the vast
majority of us take from 3 1/2 to 4 months or more.  And doing it in two
years is not a reason not to hike it.  It's just too wonderful to miss.  If
you're into doing it and you've got those 3 months off, go as far as you
can and have a ball!

Shroomer

On Fri, Jan 15, 2016 at 10:56 AM, Cody B <moonbeams13 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hey Fellow Hiker Friends,
>
> I've been planning to do a 2016 NOBO thru-hike, but the sheer quantity of
> snow in the Sierras and other conditions related to El Nino are concerning
> me. I'm a student and my hike at any time for the next several years will
> have to be mid-May to mid-August. Since I have such a short window, if I
> get held up at Kennedy Meadows by more than a couple days then I wouldn't
> be able to finish the trail. :( That being said, a strong El Nino is often
> followed by a strong La Nina, which would typically allow for an earlier
> entrance to the Sierras, unless I am mistaken. I know there's no way to
> completely tell the snow pack in the summer this early in the year, but
> might I be better off postponing my hike to 2017 given my short window and
> the predicted conditions? Looking forward to the thoughts of some more
> experienced hikers. Thank you in advance!
>
> Yours,
>
> Cody
>
> --
> Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter
> and those who matter don't mind. ~Dr. Seuss
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