[pct-l] SoBo hiking season extrapolations expanded

[ned at mountaineducation.org]

PCT SoBo single-season thru hike time frame extrapolations:

 

 

 

Let's look at the SoBo thru hike time window respective of powder snow
"bookends:"

 

Preview:

 

At the Pacific Northwest end...

 

Light Winter:  consider a mid-June start

Average Winter:  consider a July 4th start (based on the recommendations by
locals)

Heavy Winter:  consider an August 1st start

 

At the Sierra end...

(again, these dates are based on living in the Sierra for the past 30 years.
A statistician can refine this...)

 

Early Winter:  Mid-October clear the Sierra (ski areas open on Thanksgiving)

Average Winter:  November 1st clear the Sierra (ski areas open for
Christmas)

Late Winter:  Mid-November clear the Sierra (ski areas make snow for
Christmas and pray for snow in January)

 

People need to realize that storms track three ways on the coast, 

- hit to the north, Portland and Seattle, and graze the Sierra

- hit both the north and south, tracking down the coast on its way east

- hit the south and graze the north.

 

Therefore, one end is usually hit harder than the other. So, it becomes a
gamble what you'll get when doing your planning months ahead of a hike!
Start dates SoBo have to be flexible and hikers have to be patient for safe
trail conditions. The longer you wait to start, the more consolidated will
be the snow and with wisdom, the safer you may be.

 

Premises:

 

-          1 month for Washington, 1 month for Oregon, 1 month for NorCal,
and 1 month to clear the Sierra, Donner to Cottonwood Passes,

-          Most SoBo hikers can clear the Sierra by the 4-month mark.

-          Wherever you find snow, know how to safely walk on and
confidently navigate over it.

-          This is not based on any statistics, but rather my own on-trail
experiences during those months in the Sierra and PNW.

-          I stretch the latest time to clear the Sierra to mid-November
because most of the storms that hit the Sierra early, September thru
November, are usually less than a foot in quantity and melt off within a day
or so of the sun coming out. This doesn't mean that it will for you when you
are there, sunlight, aspect, and temperature depending.

-          Nothing is cast in stone. What you will see for snow depth and
coverage when you get there will have been affected by length of sunlight,
amount of rain, timing of last snowstorm, wind, temperature, and aspect of
the exposure. There may be no snow or total coverage.

-          The longer you wait to start after these suggested start dates,
the less snow will be present on the trail. You will have sections of dry
trail, patches of steep snow, or entire expanses of snow.

-          The primary issue with snow on the PCT in the PNW is the
steepness of the terrain the trail cuts through. When the snow covers the
trail on steep slopes, it assumes the pitch of the slope. If the slope is
30-degrees, where in the summer the flat trailbed is exposed and dry, when
covered in a few feet of snow, it will not exist and look like the rest of
the hillside you have to traverse.

-          Anyone with training can go straight up or down, it is the steep
traverses that require extreme caution and careful foot placement with
traction aides and self-arrest devices.

 

 

So, let's put together the 9 possibilities:

 

1. PNW post-light winter to Sierra late winter start:

- Start: Mid-June 

- Clear Sierra by mid-November bookend

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 5 months

- Meaning: hikers may start on a snowpack of steep, slippery snow and go
through the Sierra ((majority go thru mid-Sept to mid-Oct) under a mild
threat of light snowstorms.

 

2. PNW post-light winter to Sierra average winter start:

- Start: Mid-June 

- Clear Sierra by November 1st 

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 4.5 months

- Meaning: hikers may start on a snowpack of steep, slippery snow and go
through the Sierra (mid-Sept to mid-Oct) under a mild/moderate threat of
light/moderate snow.

 

3. PNW post-light winter to Sierra early winter start:

- Start: Mid-June 

- Clear Sierra by mid-October

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 4 months

- Meaning: hikers may start on a snowpack of steep, slippery snow and go
through the Sierra (mid-Sept to mid-Oct) under a moderate threat of
moderate/heavy snow. 

 

4. PNW post-average winter to Sierra late winter start:

- Start: July 4th 

- Clear Sierra by mid-November bookend

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 4.5 months

- Meaning: hikers may start on steep, slippery, consolidated snow and go
through the Sierra (majority go thru Oct. 1st to Nov. 1st) under a
light-moderate threat of light/moderate snowstorms.

 

5. PNW post-average winter to Sierra average winter start:

- Start: July 4th 

- Clear Sierra by November 1st

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 4 months

- Meaning:  hikers may start on steep, slippery, consolidated snow and go
through the Sierra under a moderate threat of moderately heavy snow.

 

6. PNW post-average winter to Sierra early winter start:

- Start: July 4th 

- Clear Sierra by mid-October

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 3.5 months

- Meaning: hikers may start on steep, slippery, consolidated snow and go
through the Sierra under a substantial threat of moderate to heavy snow.

 

7. PNW post-heavy winter to Sierra late winter start:

- Start: August 1st

- Clear Sierra by mid-November bookend, if possible

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 3.5 months

- Meaning: hikers may start on steep, slippery consolidated snow and go
through the Sierra (majority go thru Nov. 1st to Dec. 1st) under a moderate
threat of moderately heavy snow.

 

8. PNW post-heavy winter to Sierra average winter start:

- Start: August 1st 

- Clear Sierra by November 1st, if possible. You will have to hurry a bit.

- Hiking time, start to Cottonwood Pass: 3 months

- Meaning: hikers may start on steep, slippery consolidated snow and go
through the Sierra under a substantial threat of moderately heavy snow.

 

9. PNW post-heavy winter to Sierra early winter start:

- Start: August 1st

- Clear Sierra by mid-October. Maybe flip-flop to do the sierra early, then
do NorCal and SoCal.

- Hiking time start to Cottonwood Pass: 2.5 months (not realistic for most
continuous thru hikers)

- Meaning: hikers may start on steep, slippery consolidated snow and enter
and go through the Sierra under a relatively serious threat of potentially
heavy snow. Utilize flip-flops after Oregon to get the Sierra done before
mid-October. NorCal/SoCal are lower, so the risk of snow can be less late in
the hiking season window.

 

Overview:

 

- Powder snow can stop you in your tracks and snowshoes don't help much.
Avoid it.

- Hard, consolidated snow you can walk on top of, but may soften under
sunshine and longer days to make postholing conditions a real exhausting
problem. Avoid this, too.

- A little fresh snow is not a big deal as the trailbed remains flat,
side-to-side, and visible.

- After a light snowfall, the trail beneath becomes wet, icy, and very
slippery as you kick through it.

- No matter when you start SoBo, you've got to keep an eye on the Sierra
weather forecasts.

- The later you start, the less steep snow in the PNW, but the more you may
have to hurry south, especially if you start hearing about the Sierra temps
growing cold and the aspen leaves starting to turn color.

- You need around 4 months from start to Cottonwood Pass. 

- #5, the average PNW to average Sierra hiking window, is pushing it at 4
months. #6, 7, 8, and 9 are even worse and may require flip-flopping to
solve the Sierra problem.

 

I hope this helped make better sense of what I wrote the other day!

 

 

Ned Tibbits, Director

Mountain Education, Inc.

ned at mountaineducation.org <mailto:ned at mountaineducation.org>