[pct-l] Lake Morena Kick Off: AHA! / Occam's Razor-KIS / ADZPCTKO

[Paint YW]

-Sunshine (Susan from Spokane)

I believe that you have had an AHA moment, where the light bulb goes
off in one's head signifying that a solution to a problem has
surfaced, or wherein an idea has materialized at once. It's so simple:
the ADZPCTKO (if ever held again) would better serve the "trail" by
being held the last FULL weekend of March. OR, in lieu of a
reconstituted ADZPCTKO, an impromptu/informal gathering might be held
on this same weekend.

Hypothesis # One- not as many people would attend due to school or
work obligations, and Hypothesis # Two- less people would be inclined
to start en mass due to weather concerns.

Most if not all of the problems associated with the ADZPCTKO, would
diminish if not go away in entirety. IF NOT, set the date for the last
FULL weekend in February, and let the results speak for themselves.

Also, more hikers would naturally select earlier dates for permits,
encouraging the beneficial techniques of spreading out the herds and
assisting hikers in flipping and flopping up (NOBO) and down (SOBO)
the trail. Thinking of two geo windows: the first 700 miles, and key
sections between Sonora Pass and the Oregon border, IF- timed right.

What can it hurt to try an earlier date, even if it's not held under
an umbrella organization?

The trail is coming into it's maturity due to a number of factors, and
the population of hikers is only going to increase. It's best to meet
this issue head on and deal with it using best practices.

Disclosure: I am an ardent supporter and a two time attendee
(2012,2015) of the ADZPCTKO. For me, and my perspective, the ADZPCTKO,
did more good than harm. Perhaps it was a classic case of being a
victim of it's own success.

The question to ask is: How can the trail and the coming hordes be
best served / dealt with, and would an attraction like the ADZPCTKO,
held earlier in the season, become part of the solution instead of
contributing to the problem? I believe that there is an ideal weekend
to hold such an affair, and it just might be in late February or
sometime in March. This evolves almost entirely on a paradigm shift in
the traditional hiking protocol of a continuous hike, step by step
north, and instead shifts almost entirely (for early starters) into
one of a flip flop strategy.

What say yee faithful list-serve readers?

FWIW- My PCTA permitted departure dates from the southern border have
been as follows:

NOBO 2012 04-26

NOBO 2013 05-20

NOBO 2014 03-23

NOBO 2015 03-03

SOBO 2015 07-10

NOBO 2016 02-14 (worked the season at VVR)

NOBO 2017 00-00 (worked the season at VVR)

NOBO 2018 02-15 PCTA permitted / issue-delayed / departure pending (I
plan to jump on the trail and hike NOBO in the next few days around
mile #210.)

Best regards,

Paint

>>> From a section hiker:

On April 4 I started at Campo and hiked 152 miles to Highway 74 —
great burgers at the Paradise Valley Cafe! — but the heat from the
border to Lake Morena was awful. Nearly all of us took 2 days to get
to the lake.  Each time the folks I was hiking with descended to the
desert floor, the heat and the liters of water we had to carry made
life very difficult.  (Most water sources were already dry or broken
or unsupplied.)  Many of us commented that we couldn’t understand why
the ADZPCTKO used to be held in late April, inviting many hikers to
start then.  If it was bad for us, we couldn’t imagine starting a
month later.  (And I know that some folks circled back for the event,
but truly — it encouraged many to start then.)

The opinion of the 15-20 folks I was consistently hiking and/or
camping with was that if it were ever held again, do it a month
earlier.

—Sunshine (Susan from Spokane)  (1650 done & 1000 to go) <<<