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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I understand that approximately 500 thru
permits are issued each year. For the past several years we have been
averaging about 300 hikers at Hiker Heaven. While it’s far from reliable data, those
numbers would indicate an approximate 16% drop out rate in the first 454 miles,
and a 33% drop out rate overall to the northern terminus. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The year that the Dinsmores had 256 was
2005, and was something of an anomaly, where there was a great deal of snow in
the Sierras and below average snow in the PNW. Hikers started the trail down
south, got through as far as they could, and flipped.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>L-Rod<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
pct-l-bounces@backcountry.net [mailto:pct-l-bounces@backcountry.net] <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>jeff.singewald@comcast.net<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Sunday, January 13, 2008
6:57 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Patrick Beggan; Hiker97;
pct-l@backcountry.net<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: [pct-l] PCT Drop Out
Rate</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>I would have to agree that the drop-out rate is likely much lower than
80%, though I have no hard data to base this on. I would also guess that
the drop-out rate has decreased over time for a couple of reasons.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>One stat that I would be very interested to know is what percentage of
PCT thru-hikers make the PCT their first long-distance trail. For me that
was the case, however, it seems that more an more AT vets are coming out west
to take another hike. This would have some impact on a reducing the
drop-out rate I would think as these folks have a better idea of what it takes
to complete a long-distance hike.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>While it is likely less than 50% of the thru-hikers that attend ADZ, I
wonder if the ADZ folks have ever taken a survey of this type of profile
data? It would be interesting.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #1010FF 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt;
margin-left:3.75pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>-------------- Original message -------------- <br>
From: Patrick Beggan <meta474@gmail.com> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Drop-out rate inflation is common. When I went into basic training the
word in the barracks was "fifty percent drop-out rate!" but in fact
we lost about 3 guys out of 60.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>I'm sure it's the same for the PCT. I very highly down the dropout rate
is 80%. I could believe maybe 40-50% but its probably even less than that.
Although it's probably true that most of the dropouts happen in the beginning.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>On Jan 13, 2008, at 8:25 PM, Hiker97 wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Over at Tell It On The Mountain (<a
href="http://www.tellitonthemountain.com/episode1.html">www.tellitonthemountain.com/episode1.html</a>)
they mentions that the drop out rate is about 35%. I always thought it
was much higher than that for a thru hike. I thought the success rate was
around 20% going NoBo and the drop out rate about 80%. I thought that
only about 50% of the original class leaving Campo will leave Kennedy Meadows
and head into the Sierras.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>I know it depends on snow, etc., but what is the average
success rate each year? I am a little confused.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Thanks, Switchback the Rater<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div id=ue0abfad229bf42e3b20bdc85b6075943>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-top:7.5pt;text-align:center'><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:7.5pt'><font size=2 color=black
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style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:7.5pt'><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:7.5pt'><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
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</blockquote>
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