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<P>It's an interesting observation, though, since there were also some auto-related close calls. I am aware of at least two car accidents involving hikers. A few years ago some nobos were in a pretty bad wreck either on their way to the trail or getting supplies (sorry the old bean is getting foggier and foggier). In '05 one of our hiker mobiles was T-boned with five hikers on board. The '86 Volvo wagon they were driving held up like the tank it was, and no one was seriously injured. <BR><BR>I want to mention the names of Jane and Flicka, the sobo honeymooners who were run down by a driver asleep at the wheel out on Hwy 138, less than 500 miles from their goal. They are very special to us all, as there is an endowment fund set up to help the PCT in their memory. </P>
<P>L-Rod<BR></P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid">-----Original Message----- <BR>From: Denis Stanton <DENISSTANTON@MAC.COM><BR>Sent: Jan 14, 2008 3:12 PM <BR>To: Lon Cooper <LONCOOPER@GMAIL.COM><BR>Cc: PCT <PCT-L@BACKCOUNTRY.NET><BR>Subject: Re: [pct-l] safety on the trail <BR><BR><ZZZHTML><ZZZBODY style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space">As two out of the five reported deaths were actually motor vehicle accidents this leads to the rather absurd conclusion that PCT thru hikers are 2.4 times more likely to die in motor vehicle accidents in the course of their hike than people who travel by car.
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<DIV>Clearly the statistical sample is too small for this to be a realistic statement - it's merely an odd observation</DIV>
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<DIV>Denis<BR>
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<DIV>On 15/01/2008, at 11:47 AM, Lon Cooper wrote:</DIV><BR class=Apple-interchange-newline>
<BLOCKQUOTE type="cite">Brick, If your numbers are accurate, that is a pretty high rate of<BR>death for thru hikers. About a 1 in 1,100 chance, assuming 500 hikers<BR>a year, over 11 years and 5 deaths.<BR><BR>If the statistics here are accurate:<BR><BR><A href="http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm" target=_blank>http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm</A><BR><BR>You had a 1 in 6,535 chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident in<BR>the year 2004. Making thru hiking the PCT is about 6 times more deadly<BR>than driving or riding in a motor vehicle.<BR><BR>But your point is well taken, that none of these were caused by bad<BR>guys (or bad animals) on the trail.<BR><BR>-Lon<BR><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV><BR>
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<DIV><SPAN class=Apple-style-span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12px; COLOR: rgb(31,73,125); FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Denis Stanton</SPAN></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT class=Apple-style-span face=Arial color=#808080 size=2><SPAN class=Apple-style-span style="FONT-SIZE: 10px"><A href="mailto:denisstanton@mac.com" target=_blank>denisstanton@mac.com</A></SPAN></FONT></DIV></SPAN></DIV></DIV></SPAN></DIV><BR></DIV></DIV></ZZZBODY></ZZZHTML></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY>