<html><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">As two out of the five reported deaths were actually motor vehicle accidents this leads to the rather absurd conclusion that PCT thru hikers are 2.4 times more likely to die in motor vehicle accidents in the course of their hike than people who travel by car.<div><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div>Clearly the statistical sample is too small for this to be a realistic statement - it's merely an odd observation</div><div><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div>Denis<br><div><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div><br><div><div>On 15/01/2008, at 11:47 AM, Lon Cooper wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite">Brick, If your numbers are accurate, that is a pretty high rate of<br>death for thru hikers. About a 1 in 1,100 chance, assuming 500 hikers<br>a year, over 11 years and 5 deaths.<br><br>If the statistics here are accurate:<br><br><a href="http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm">http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm</a><br><br>You had a 1 in 6,535 chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident in<br>the year 2004. Making thru hiking the PCT is about 6 times more deadly<br>than driving or riding in a motor vehicle.<br><br>But your point is well taken, that none of these were caused by bad<br>guys (or bad animals) on the trail.<br><br>-Lon<br><br></blockquote></div><br><div apple-content-edited="true"> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family: Arial; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; ">Denis Stanton</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; "><div><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#808080" face="Arial" size="2"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 10px; "><a href="mailto:denisstanton@mac.com">denisstanton@mac.com</a></span></font></div></span></div></div></span> </div><br></div></div></body></html>