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Again, I will restate my purpose in responding to this: If you don't
see that what you did was a mistake and could have been avoided, then
how will you avoid doing something similar in the future?<br>
<br>
Weather forecasts are easy to obtain on the internet. If you're doing
a trip to the mountains in wintertime (or any time for that matter),
you should check the forecast for the part of the mountains that you're
going to. The mountain forecast is often very different than the
lowland forecast.<br>
<br>
If you knew that you'd get more than two feet of new snow by end of day
on Sunday, you could have:<br>
1) Chosen a different location. The hike up Denny Creek is great
summertime hike, but crosses steep terrain that is extremely avalanche
prone in winter.<br>
2) Taken snowshoes or skis. One person on this trip showed up with
snowshoes and he was told to leave them in the car because he wouldn't
need them.<br>
3) Taken something other than a tarp or tarptent for shelter.<br>
<br>
This is all easy to see in hindsight. But if you refuse to see it in
hindsight, then what has been learned? <br>
<br>
Your group was lucky. As you pointed out, there were others that
weekend who were not so lucky. They don't get another chance, but you
do. Your future trips could benefit by looking at what happened and
why.<br>
<br>
Greg<br>
<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:cvano@tmail.com">cvano@tmail.com</a> wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:1200933686.69139C4@fb8.dngr.org" type="cite">
<pre wrap="">There were 10 people on the mountain that day in three seperate
parties. 5 did not come back, 2 more were injured, and 3 have yet to
even be found. That's 10 people that either misinterpeded or got the
wrong weather forecast. Apparently the Sheriff's dept and SAR also got
the same one. The weather question has been talked to death and
millions of fingers have been pointed because of it. The information
was available. We didn't find it. It happened. There is nothing we
can do to change that now as I sit here about to lose a toe. This blog
was about us from the first rescuer to reach us. Scott will always be a
larger than life Superhero to me, weather notwithstanding.
On Mon, 21 Jan 2008 8:11 am, Greg Kesselring wrote:
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre wrap="">Interesting reading. Thanks for posting. Once you guys got into
trouble, it seems like you did everything right.
However, I would take issue with his statement that the forecast called
for only 1 to 3 inches of new snow. Here is the actual forecast for
the West Slopes of the Central WA Cascades that the National Weather
Service posted at 4AM Saturday morning, December 1 . That forecast is
shown below.
The 1 to 3 inches was for Saturday during the day. They forecast an
additional 6 to 10 inches for Saturday night and another 8 to 14 inches
for Sunday. If you take the high end of the range, you get a total
snowfall of 27 inches by end of day Sunday. That's quite a different
picture than the 1 to 3 inches he states in his account. More than two
feet of new snow forecast by end of day Sunday.
As I said, what you did once you got into trouble was remarkable.
However, with a forecast of more than 2 feet of new snow, I believe the
trip leader realized that it was an error in judgment to go ahead and
do the trip. He offered an apology for this on the website that
organizes these trips.
My point in writing today is not to point fingers or cast blame. But
rather to point out that the entire Search and Rescue operation could
have been avoided if the party had gotten an accurate forecast and
taken the forecast seriously. If they don't see that (and it seems
like some of them don't when they make statements like "weather
forecast of light snow shower with an accumulation of only 3 to 5
inches."), then nothing's been learned (regarding weather forecasts)
and it's possible that they could find themselves in a similar
situation in the future.
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2007
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DARRINGTON...MARBLEMOUNT...CONCRETE...
INDEX...SNOQUALMIE PASS...RANDLE...PACKWOOD...ASHFORD...MORTON
400 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2007
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
PST MONDAY...
.TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON PASS
TEMPERATURES 19 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE PASSES AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL
BELOW 500 FEET. EAST WIND IN THE PASSES 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SNOW. WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. SNOW
LEVEL 1500 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST
WIND IN THE PASSES 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 15 TO 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:cvano@tmail.com">cvano@tmail.com</a> wrote:
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre wrap="">This is Scott! The first guy to step into our camp that day and say
'Hi. I'm Scott. How you guys doin?'. Please read this.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://scottstaton.blogspot.com/2007/12/rescue-at-denny-creek.html">http://scottstaton.blogspot.com/2007/12/rescue-at-denny-creek.html</a>
It's not the Mountains that we conquer,
but Ourselves. Sir Edmund Hillary 1919-2008
Ol' Three Toes aka Chris
S/V Drifter ~~~_/)~~~
Anacortes, WA.
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</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<pre wrap=""><!---->
It's not the Mountains that we conquer,
but Ourselves. Sir Edmund Hillary 1919-2008
Ol' Three Toes aka Chris
S/V Drifter ~~~_/)~~~
Anacortes, WA.
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