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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Good evening, All,</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman">The recent comments about snow in Oregon are
correct:<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Don’t panic.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The biggest risk may
be unrealistic expectations.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>It’s easy to read Journals by hikers from previous years and come
away with the impression that Oregon PCT is relatively flat, the days are long,
the weather is nice, and a hardened thru-hiker could expect to book 35 &
40-mile days.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Maybe, but resist
scheduling around that assumption this year.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Absent a huge “pineapple express” to
increase melting, there will greater snowpack this year.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It won’t make hiking or route-finding
ruinously difficult, but it will make it slower.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Weathercarrot referred to 1999 when NoBo’s encountered
significant snowpack in the area of The Three Sisters and Mt. Jefferson in
August.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I agree this year may be
similar, but it may not be confined to central Oregon.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>In 1999 I section-hiked Oregon and there
was considerable residual snowpack.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>One day, between Santiam Pass and Mt. Jefferson, it started snowing
mid-morning, and it snowed hard with near white-out conditions most of the day,
accumulating about 3" of fresh stuff..<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>I passed Three-Fingered Jack, a very noticeable crag about ¼ mile east of
the trail, and I could see nothing of it, whatever.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>That particular day was 31 August.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>I expect some Oregon hikers and maintainers will post trail conditions on
PCT-L beginning late July and August.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>It would be useful if hikers could view those reports, but N. California
may be a good indication of what's to come.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The weather fronts don’t know where the
border is.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3></FONT> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Steel-Eye</FONT></P></FONT></DIV>
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=weathercarrot@hotmail.com
href="mailto:weathercarrot@hotmail.com">Weathercarrot</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net
href="mailto:pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net">pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 08, 2008 10:42
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [pct-l] Snowpack &
northbounder timing</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Hi Ed - you wrote: << This year has seen lots of train
problems both in Donner Pass area as well as the Cascades. So where is all the
global warming? I personally believe its exists but it also seems we are
having lots more snow problems out west. Is the rest of the USA having the
same problem with snow this year.... I think the tornado this week was pretty
early also........ In 5/7 years down the road will the dates for starting out
in Campo be earlier or later? Weathercarrot? any info here?>> I would
just say that southern CA precipitation seasons have always been all over the
map as far as precip totals, snow conditions, spring storms (if any), and
timing of snow melt. We went from almost all time high spring/summer snowpack
in 05 to average in 06 to virtually all-time low precip/snowpack in 07. I
think whatever may actually be happening with global climate change in the
next 5-10 years would probably leave southern CA with a similar wide range of
yearly variation, and very hard to predict. So I think the average Campo time
may stay about the same, with potential big differences from season to season.
Southern CA still has a long way to go to match the 1998 and 2005 rain/snow
seasons, which were about even, with some spots bigger in 98 and other spots
bigger in 05. And as far the Sierra, we're still well behind 2005 and 2006
levels, but doing MUCH better than 2007. I would also say that the more
relevent snowpack regions for thru-hikers (as far as timing a Campo start) is
from San Jacinto to Carson Pass (by Tahoe). Northern CA and the Cascades have
less impact because of how late most northbounders arrive there. However, a
notable exception was what the earlier 1999 northbounders ran into around
Three Sisters and Jefferson Park, where significant August snow navigation was
needed. February is far too early to know what kind of summer snow conditions
we'll see in those two OR areas. Even if they have similar snow totals by
May/June, the melt pattern could be very different. wc
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