[pct-l] 2010 Hiker Migration Estimated

[Paul Bodnar]

Hi Jeff,

 

>Just wondering how to identified the 09 data points.  Was this done through a review of PCT trail registers, interviews with 09 thru hikers or another >methodology. 

 

The data points are shown on the charts on the website, there were a total of five sets of data points used to create the estimate.  I presented each set of data as a distribution.  One at the beginning and the end of the trail which were estimated from data collected from electronic trail journals.  A statistical sample of the electronic journals were painfully analyzed to obtain a representative distribution for both the beginning and end distribution.  The remaining three sets of data points were collected from trail registers.  The data is analyzed assuming a statistical representation from these trail journals and trail registers.    

 

> How many specific data points were gathered for your estimates and what mileage per day average did you utilize to map out the linear progression northward?

 

For example the Oasis Cache and HikerTown sample size (which I recently collected) was 244 and 241 respectively.  The number of hikers is assumed much greater than this but these numbers provide a good representative sample of the distribution of hikers.  You don't need an accurate count of every hiker to obtain an accurate distribution, just a good sample size.  I used a linear regression to predict the timing of the hikers between data points.  The R^2 value for the data analyzed exceeded 0.996 and was as high as 0.998.  This suggests that the data is linear as indicated.

 

I have made numerous requests for other trail register information further North but have not received any additional information.  (For the record L-Rod has offerred her data.  But I have not had the time to review and enter the data.)  I have tried my best to present the best information I can with the limited information I have.  If you have other data that can make the prediction better please forward it to me.

 

Thank you for your interest in the study.

 

Paul

 

 


 
 		 	   		  
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