[pct-l] 2014 or 2015

[Ned Tibbits]

Just want to add a comment regarding Gary's experience with a light snowpack 
in CA in 2012 while a deeper one in Oregon:

Keep an eye on the storm track! While a High Pressure system sits in front 
of CA, storms rotate over it into Oregon and Washington. This is what we had 
in 2012 and why Gary had to deal with snow later in the summer in Oregon.

Right now, the High system is so large that storms are rotating over both CA 
and Oregon and dumping their snow in Canada and Alaska. However, this is not 
uncommon for early in the winter! Things can change. Just watch the storm 
track and not just the sierra weather or snowpack assuming the further north 
you go the snow will be melt out!



Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
www.mountaineducation.org
-----Original Message----- 
From: Gary Minetti
Sent: Tuesday, January 14, 2014 1:42 PM
To: Karen Keller
Cc: pct-l
Subject: Re: [pct-l] 2014 or 2015

Karen,

A couple of thoughts from a guy who turned 59 on the PCT in 2012.

1.  If time and opportunity are on your side then go for it now.  Go for the 
journey, whether you make it to Canada or not.

2. If you are concerned about snow, then it is way too early in the year to 
count on a light snowpack in CA.  And, a light snowpack in CA may not 
translate further north as I found out in Oregon in July, 2012.  March is 
too early to start your journey.

3.  Consider waiting to start (from the point you mentioned 350 miles N of 
the Border) until sometime in Mid May - perhaps even a bit later if you 
would really like to avoid significant snow.  That will give you 4 months to 
focus on your gear, your re-suppply logistics and your conditioning.

4.  Start walking with a pack a minimum of 3x a week.  Slowly build the 
miles and the weight in the pack.  In 4 months, you will have established a 
solid foundation.

If you have the chance, get out on the trail this year.   There are no 
guarantees about next year.

Stay well and enjoy yourself.

Gman
Class of 2012





On Jan 14, 2014, at 12:36 PM, Karen Keller wrote:

> I am 60 and overweight, in excellent health but very out of shape now. I
> hiked about 350 miles three years ago and, now, I want to keep going all
> the way to Canada, or as far as my legs will take me in five months. I 
> HATE
> snow reeeeally HATE it. (Fuller Ridge was a nightmare for me) Do I use the
> next two months to train like crazy maybe drop 15-20 lbs of the 50 that
> need to come off and leave for Canada in late March to take advantage of
> this low snow year. OR do I stay home to train for another year, drop all
> the extra weight to be better prepared physically, and take my chances 
> with
> snow in 2015. For me the snow was a deal breaker in 2011. I have taken
> Ned's class and I would survive, I think, but I will not hike into snow by
> choice. Advice? Opinions? I do not want to be foolish or impetuious, but I
> do not want to let an opportunity that may not come again, pass me by
> either.
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