[pct-l] El Nino vs. La Nina: Potentially Postpone?

[Barry Teschlog]

Cody wrote:
I've been planning to do a 2016 NOBO thru-hike, but the sheer quantity of
snow in the Sierras and other conditions related to El Nino are concerning
me. I'm a student and my hike at any time for the next several years will
have to be mid-May to mid-August. Since I have such a short window, if I
get held up at Kennedy Meadows by more than a couple days then I wouldn't
be able to finish the trail. :( That being said, a strong El Nino is often
followed by a strong La Nina, which would typically allow for an earlier
entrance to the Sierras, unless I am mistaken. I know there's no way to
completely tell the snow pack in the summer this early in the year, but
might I be better off postponing my hike to 2017 given my short window and
the predicted conditions? Looking forward to the thoughts of some more
experienced hikers. Thank you in advance

Response:OK, so let's do the math.  If you're talking about a 3 month thru hike, that means you'd be a speedster.
Assumptions:  May 15 start day.  25 miles per day for the first 4 days, then 30 miles per day thereafter.  No zero days.
Given the above:  You'd cover the 700 miles to Kennedy Meadows by June 8th and arrive at mile 2650 (Canada) around August 12th.
Analysis:1)  Snow levels, at least as of today, are still incredibly "average".  Only in the context of the low snow levels of the last few years can anyone state that there is a "sheer [large] quantity of snow" in the Sierra at this point in time.  In the historical context, current snow pack is "meh."  South Sierra isn't even up to historical average, central and north are slightly above historical average.  http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action

2)  Given that it's pretty "average" in the Sierra, at least so far, a KM date of June 8th is unremarkable.  Go then, you'll be fine.  Plenty have started into the Sierra on that date, or earlier, in heavy snow years, so if you feel the need to wait, it's only because of a lack of skills, preparation or gear on your part.  This can be mitigated by getting the training / experience you need in combination with the right gear for the conditions.
3)  Hoping on next year being a low snow year is a fools errand.  Personal anecdote - as I sat here about 11 years ago, I was thinking the same thing (hoping "next" year would be less than the current one).  2005 was shaping up to be a very high snow year and I figured my year, 2006, couldn't be as heavy - well, it was, and then some.  Conclusion:  Go the year you plan on going (e.g. 2016).  Waiting for "ideal" or even better conditions means you'll risk keep on waiting since 2017 could be a high snow year, and life may move on by such that you can no longer hike the trail.  Internships, summer classes, significant other's, kids, career, mortgages, car payments and the rest can sneak up on you.
Bottom line:  my 2 cents is go this year.  Conditions are, so far, unremarkable and waiting a year is a huge crap shoot that could end up costing you the chance to go at all (snow and life happens after all).  Unless you're in excellent shape, your proposed time line of 3 months is aggressive, although it's been done before.  Even if you are in good shape, you'll be putting on some sustained big mile days with few opportunities for a zero - I'd suggest doing the math given an honest self assessment of your ability.  You may find that doing a "2 year plan", as already suggested, is a better choice for you.  YMMV, Free advice being worth what you paid, etc.