[pct-l] Snowpack & northbounder timing

[Steel-Eye]

Good evening, All,

 

The recent comments about snow in Oregon are correct:  Don't panic.  The biggest risk may be unrealistic expectations.  It's easy to read Journals by hikers from previous years and come away with the impression that Oregon PCT is relatively flat, the days are long, the weather is nice, and a hardened thru-hiker could expect to book 35 & 40-mile days.  Maybe, but resist scheduling around that assumption this year.  Absent a huge "pineapple express" to increase melting, there will greater snowpack this year.  It won't make hiking or route-finding ruinously difficult, but it will make it slower.  

 

Weathercarrot referred to 1999 when NoBo's encountered significant snowpack in the area of The Three Sisters and Mt. Jefferson in August.  I agree this year may be similar, but it may not be confined to central Oregon.  In 1999 I section-hiked Oregon and there was considerable residual snowpack.  One day, between Santiam Pass and Mt. Jefferson, it started snowing mid-morning, and it snowed hard with near white-out conditions most of the day, accumulating about 3" of fresh stuff..  I passed Three-Fingered Jack, a very noticeable crag about ¼ mile east of the trail, and I could see nothing of it, whatever.  That particular day was 31 August.  


I expect some Oregon hikers and maintainers will post trail conditions on PCT-L beginning late July and August.  It would be useful if hikers could view those reports, but N. California may be a good indication of what's to come.  The weather fronts don't know where the border is.



Steel-Eye

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Weathercarrot 
  To: pct-l at mailman.backcountry.net 
  Sent: Friday, February 08, 2008 10:42 PM
  Subject: Re: [pct-l] Snowpack & northbounder timing


  Hi Ed - you wrote: << This year has seen lots of train problems both in Donner Pass area as well as the Cascades. So where is all the global warming? I personally believe its exists but it also seems we are having lots more snow problems out west. Is the rest of the USA having the same problem with snow this year.... I think the tornado this week was pretty early also........ In 5/7 years down the road will the dates for starting out in Campo be earlier or later? Weathercarrot? any info here?>> I would just say that southern CA precipitation seasons have always been all over the map as far as precip totals, snow conditions, spring storms (if any), and timing of snow melt. We went from almost all time high spring/summer snowpack in 05 to average in 06 to virtually all-time low precip/snowpack in 07. I think whatever may actually be happening with global climate change in the next 5-10 years would probably leave southern CA with a similar wide range of yearly variation, and very hard to predict. So I think the average Campo time may stay about the same, with potential big differences from season to season. Southern CA still has a long way to go to match the 1998 and 2005 rain/snow seasons, which were about even, with some spots bigger in 98 and other spots bigger in 05. And as far the Sierra, we're still well behind 2005 and 2006 levels, but doing MUCH better than 2007. I would also say that the more relevent snowpack regions for thru-hikers (as far as timing a Campo start) is from San Jacinto to Carson Pass (by Tahoe). Northern CA and the Cascades have less impact because of how late most northbounders arrive there. However, a notable exception was what the earlier 1999 northbounders ran into around Three Sisters and Jefferson Park, where significant August snow navigation was needed. February is far too early to know what kind of summer snow conditions we'll see in those two OR areas. Even if they have similar snow totals by May/June, the melt pattern could be very different. wc 


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