[pct-l] Sierra Snowpack prediction

[Ken Murray]

I appreciate that there was a poster who specifically asked about what to expect, and I appreciate that there are those that consider actual consideration and planning at this point borders on pure stupidity.

Personally, I think it is a good idea to start to get "into the zone", in terms of thinking about what is to come, and to plan, plan, plan.  Last year was a low snow year, and yet people ended up calling for rescue south of Whitney, because they weren't prepared (more mentally, than physically, I think it is fair to say), when it started snowing significantly on them.  Will YOU be prepared?  Do you have the skills taught by Mt. Ned in his course??

That all having been said, as of today, we have already experienced one-third of the official snow season for the Sierra.  As of now, in the Southern Sierra (all that most PCT hikers need to worry about), the snowpack is 90% of average...or 10% below average.

There are no major storms predicted in the next 10 days, and in 20 days, one-half of the official snow season will be over.  Every week that passes without a huge dump, makes it more and more likely that we will have a average to below average snowpack year.  Even then, a dump later in the season has a lesser impact, than earlier in the season.  This has to do with the snow metamorphosis over time.  Later in the season, it does not have time to go through the changes to higher water content snow to ice....it simply melts out fairly fast, because of higher temperatures.  After april 1, precip tends to fall as rain, which simply melts the snow.  I apologize to those who are offended by these statements.

Of course, this year may be the year that all records are broken in the later parts of the snow season, but it is certainly not unreasonable to be monitoring this regularly, considering that the snowpack is possibly the biggest objective hazard to potentially be faced on the trip (including the associated melt-out.)

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.2010.pdf